Thursday Special - May 24th 2018
How to Invest in Our Algorithms.
Yesterday I wrote that $500 investment in 10 average stocks selected from our entire range since March 5 this year, would have produced a 59% annualized profit so far.
Of course, if you had chosen the 10 Nasdaq stocks, your profit would have been more than 50% higher or greater than 90% annualized profit.
(blog continues below chart)
In either case, at our published monthly fee schedule, you would have also paid $1,140 to us from this $5,000 account so profits would have been 36% ($1,800) or 67% ($3,350) on the $5,000 investment.
Of course, larger investments would still pay the exact same commissions and fees, thus allowing much greater profits.
It is sometimes difficult to make the best selection of stocks from the 5 or 6 Top-10 groups, but I want to emphasize how easy it is to switch around from group to group or just select a mixture from several of the groups.
I reported earlier that I switched my entire selection in my IRA during May from the Total Top-10 group into the Nasdaq Top-10 by taking Sell signals in the Total group and Buy signals in the Nasdaq group. Loyalty to an investment is not required here.
All our published trades and results have been obtained in this lousy market for the last 3 months with the S&P Index going virtually nowhere. If we had started 6 months sooner, we would all be dancing in the streets, but we don’t know when the great markets will occur.
I am encouraged by our annual returns in lousy markets and really looking forward to better opportunities tomorrow or next month, whenever they return.Wednesday Special - May 23rd 2018
FTSE Replaced by Premier Selection.
Our new Premier Selection will replace the London FTSE Top-10 in June.
Added taxes do not help trading in London programs such as ours and we find UK investors often prefer to trade in overseas markets.
Our new Premier Group of Algorithms provides investors with a highly leveraged set of widely held as well as currently popular ETFs.
Equally important is their diversification, which comprises of a popular current range representing broad portfolios.
We recently received a complaint that commissions are not calculated in our Algorithms and here are the reasons we do not include them.
Our average stock or ETF trades are less than 15 buys and 15 sells in a back tested 12-month period. At Tradier Brokerage, 30 trades at $3.49 per trade would cost $104.70 in an average year per stock. It should be noted that Tradier is offering new accounts $200 or 60 days of FREE trades if you use the code – Roebuck200.
If you make a profit of $1,000 in a year from trading one stock, you would pay less than 11% in commissions. There are many different Brokers with many different fees.
We also have accounts with Interactive Brokers where commissions are much less but Tradier is a well-designed and simple online brokerage site and that is why we use them. We do not receive any financial benefits from your choice of Brokerage and we have no financial benefits or agreements with anyone.
We do recommend that you find a Broker suited to your needs, but it would be unfair to most Subscribers for us to include a commission that does not represent their situation. You can simply multiply by 30, your commission and the number of stocks that you follow to see your estimated total cost per year.
If you wanted to follow any of our current Top-10 selections with a total of $5,000 or $500 per stock, your commissions at Tradier would be 30 x 10 x $3.49 for a total of $1,047. This is about 21% of your initial investment and the average annual profit on all of our published Algorithms since March 5, 2018 is currently 80% profit. This leaves an average of 59% potential profit on a $5,000 investment.
As you have seen, the average annual return has been rising since March 5, as expected, and any larger account reduces the significance of commissions as well as our fees.
Our fees are roughly equal to the Brokerage Commissions on the smallest account.Tuesday Special - May 22nd 2018
Reading Our Charts – VTI.
I see these every day and probably take them for granted as they have changed and improved over 7 years.
VTI is a great example because it is one of the widest held ETFs in managed accounts today. It is described as a Total Stock Market with about 98% USA equities.
The red dots represent the Buy and Hold profit if you held it since May 23, 2017 and the green line represents our results after using Algorithms. We kept making profits while VTI lost much of the previous gains during the past 5 months.
This is one example of what Algorithms can do but if this only worked on one stock over a particular period, then it would be easy to duplicate.
I urge you to look at all the stocks and ETFs that we publish to see the excellent record that has been established. As you have seen, we publish ahead of our trades and have no way to offer tricks and make believe.
I have also disclosed that our Algorithms are run every day without fail. We take the very latest information into consideration and drop off the oldest date at the same time.Monday Special - May 21st 2018
Necessary Changes for Sectors.
GKN-LON is involved in an acquisition and had to be replaced over the weekend. AHT-LON has been added in place of it.
While we are making changes and due to low volumes, we are replacing FINU with FAS in the new Premier group. In this case FINU is a sale for tomorrow, so we will not buy the replacement FAS until we get a BUY signal.
Any Followers who may have a position in either of these should sell and replace them at the next trading day open. These are treated just like a normal exchange at the end of each month when we occasionally adjust the sector Top-10 groups as necessary.
By way of explanation, we estimate that an average of 1 or 2 stocks or ETFs in each Top-10 sector will be replaced each month because they no longer perform or need replacement for some other reason.
This process means that most of the selection could be replaced within one year. In volatile sectors, this is more likely whereas in more stable sectors, it may not be the case.
Month-end is the likely time that changes occur, and it just takes a simple sell and replace on the following trading day open.Friday Special - May 17th 2018
SEE the ENTIRE PROGRAM.
If you look at the History Data page right now, you will see every trade on every Booster since March 5, 2018.
It is 74 days or 11 weeks since we began publishing our trades ahead of time to demonstrate our Algorithms and their success rate.
During these 74 days, the S&P 500 is up 1% and our average stock from over 50, is up 18% with a current and improving Average Annual Profit of 89%.
Let me say that again to be clear – Average 89% Annual Profits.Thursday May 17th 2018
What are Premier ETFs?
Money Managers around the world are looking at the same data points that influence their investment conclusions.
How is Europe doing compared to the USA or compared to China?
Is China following the whole of Asia or is Asia more generally following China and who is manipulating their currency?
Morgan Stanley Capital International is often used in the name when you see MSCI in a description because Morgan designed many of the Indexes that specify a particular segment.
You often see EAFE associated with MSCI because Morgan also used it to stand for Europe, Australasia and Far East. It basically includes all these areas excluding the USA and Canada.
When Mutual Funds were the game in town, these standards from the giants in the investment community were useful in delineating trends and financial activity into various segments.
We search data to find what Investment Managers are doing but take advantage of the rapid growth of Exchange Traded Funds. They generally have the advantage of being cheaper to manage than your typical Mutual Fund, but they have the added advantage of leverage.
We find that using a broad consensus from Money Managers in choosing financial and/or geographical selections is an excellent basis for investment. Couple that with some leverage offered by ETFs and some Algorithms offered by Roebuck Systems and you have a great model for investing.Wednesday May 16th 2018
ETF and Banker Top-10 Selections Up.
All 10 of the Banker and ETF selections went up today which tells us that the smart money as well as the risk takers were investing.
There is a rule for every Market and you can go crazy trying to adjust your investments for whatever is the latest theory.
The reason I have ended up with Algorithms is precisely this fact. They take away those greatest and latest theories on where to put your money. Just give me the facts as Sgt Joe Friday used to say on TV.
I have added a preliminary chart to show you how we intend to break our Algorithms down to make useful and investable decisions from a smaller selection of opportunities.
We often hear that there is too much data on our website or too much daily information out there and it makes it difficult to decide what to invest in for the best results. I found that it was impossible to make the best decision because tomorrow brought some new fact or new idea that I needed to know more about.
Algorithms make all that decision-making jargon a lot simpler once you see consistent results and can logically believe in what you see. That is the reason for us to offer precise investment programs that are built on a long history of known factors.Tuesday May 15th 2018
Striving for Profits.
We started all current Algorithms on March 5, 2018 on the same day that we introduced them to the public.
Since then, 71 days ago, the S&P 500 has gone virtually nowhere for an annual rate of approximating 6%.
We introduced 50 Algorithms and traded them daily, representing a wide range of stocks and investments.
In those same 71 days, they moved up an average of 14% or an annual rate of 71% profit with the best selection of Nasdaq stocks near 150% annual profit.
We certainly chose a poor starting date based on Market activity, but it has been a great opportunity to demonstrate how our Algorithms keep us in profits during poor Market conditions.
The slowest group are the Banker Top-10 but they rose at a 26% annual rate of profit. At that rate, you would still double your money in less than every 3 years or about 830% in 10 years.
Yet, I said yesterday that we are going to introduce something better than we have seen in the past 7 years. I have great confidence in this statement because it represents a formula change that repeats itself in a range of assets.
I have already back tested and run these new Algorithms on real time data with great results and have a goal of June 1 for their introduction along with the regular monthly updates.Monday May 14th 2018
NEW Top-10 Fund Coming Soon.
Apologies for no Blog yesterday but I do have a couple of excuses. Mothers’ Day would be one of them and working on Algorithms when I should have been enjoying Mothers’ Day is the other.
Suddenly, there was no time for the Blog, but a new and improved fund will be the result in the coming weeks and I am anxious to bring the results to you.
I like the idea of someone more capable than me making some of the decisions and we plan on putting that into action in the next month or so with some very exciting results.
We are back to my argument that there is always a better way and the nice thing about mathematics is the numbers do not lie.
I fully expect the new Algorithms will produce greater results than we have experienced during the past 7 years and at this point, I intend to include it as part of our existing set of Top-10 selections.
It will most likely replace one of the current selections and I will give notice if that proves to be the case. It is difficult to replace something that is already making profits but when the technology and methods simply outdate previously published data, we just must use it.
One of the great advantages of all our Algorithms is the simplicity in following them and switching in between different Top-10 groups. I personally moved to the Nasdaq Top-10 recently by taking the SELL signals to get me out of previous stocks and the BUY signals to get me into the Nasdaq selection.
I also ran into the T+2 Banking Rule on a Corporate account and was restricted in trading for a day. I quickly changed the account to a Margin account which provides the extra cash on the few occasions that the rule kicks in.
It costs very little interest for the day or two that the extra cash is needed, and I prefer to trade on the signal day rather than stay out of a position.Sunday May 13th 2018
No Blog Today.Thursday May 10th 2018
A COUPLE of DAYS DIFFERENCE.
If you remember a couple of days ago, the ETF Top-10 was struggling due to the difficulty of owning them in down and flat markets.
What a difference a day makes! They are now #5 in the ranking and suddenly, they have a desirable annual profit and may catch up very quickly.
It always comes back to portfolio choice and your decision of what is best for your goals. A younger person has the time to be wrong (for a while), but if you are already retired, that luxury may not be available to you.
The middle of the road portfolio could be a selection of 2 from each group to get that spike that comes from leverage in strong markets. Obviously, your location may keep you in or out of the London markets.
20 years ago, or more, that leverage factor may have come from Options or perhaps Warrants or Futures but that required a set of skills that a lot of us didn’t perfect.
Another portfolio might be 5 from the Banker Top-10 which are also ETFs and is a selection from Fundamental Investment Managers together with 5 from the leveraged ETF Top-10. This could give you the confidence of expert selection advice combined with some of that leverage that looks so good.
Whichever method you choose, keeping an eye on that Banker Top-10 is always a good way of following the money.
By reading up on those symbols in the Banker group and the sectors they represent, you could then give expert commentary at your next Family Gathering!Wednesday May 9th 2018
GAMBLING or COUNTING CARDS?
My best session as a Card Counter was in the 1980’s in Monte Carlo when I walked away with about $7,000.
That is just about the time that shuffling machines began to come into favor and people like me had to rely on our careers. I am an Engineer with an inner risk computer and I use numbers and art to figure out solutions.
What you get with my Algorithms are fact-based calculations from many millions of iterations, which are always repeated every day, for each asset that we publish each evening.
So, what is the result? A better chance of being on the right side of an investment than being on the wrong side.
What I can tell you is you will have on average each day, somewhere between a 55% to 65% chance of being right in the long run. In fact, it is probably more like Card Counting in that I can only guess which card will turn up tomorrow, but I can calculate which cards are more likely than others.
I am risk averse and my inner computer told me to give up Card Counting when it was no longer a winning strategy.
What else should you know? GIGO is a computer term that I first heard early in my career when I worked on production scheduling. Garbage In – Garbage Out was a very simple warning to avoid Garbage.
If we feed the wrong data in, then we will get wrong answers, so the key is to find as much relevant data as you can and let the computer make the decision for tomorrow. I cannot currently tell you if it is a 51% chance or 65% chance, but I can tell you whether it leans to a Buy or a Sell and in the long run, I will be correct.
Finally, you should note that these basic Algorithms, with small changes, are producing positive results from all trading assets that we publish. They range from conservative to highly speculative assets. Tomorrow will be different than today but so far, we have not found a back test that does not benefit from our methods.Tuesday May 8th 2018
There are ETFs and there are ETFs!
The ETF Top-10 Booster is struggling to stay ahead of the Markets these days and quickly gives up any gains it makes in these volatile times.
The reasons are explained by the 2x and 3x leverage that these types of ETFs are designed for. This would be great if there were no severe penalties for us to pay for that leverage.
The use of Options to get the leverage introduces extreme time decays every day by them having a fixed strike price and date of expiration in the future. This becomes a cost of ownership and a daily loss.
In addition to this daily loss, there is a large management cost involved after every market close, to re-adjust the quantity and variety of options so that they will open on the next trading day with their particular leverage value and contract.
All these costs are overcome in a trending market but become more difficult to overcome in a flat or volatile market.
This is not true with none leveraged ETFs that are represented in the Bankers Top-10 Booster and many Investment Managers prefer to use these ETFs rather than Mutual Funds because the management costs are about 1/2% cheaper and can give them an edge in competition.
This 1/2% gives all of us the same advantage. Remember that Mutual Funds have annual management costs in the 1% to 2% range and this expense can make a big difference in large portfolios.
These savings are one of the main reasons for the fast growth of the ETF industry over the past 10 years or so and why we see them represented in major portfolios. An earlier version of them is the SPY which represents the trading values of all S&P 500 stocks in real time values.Monday May 7th 2018
How to Begin.
We suggest you start with the “Bankers Top-10” because they are the investment of choice by many International Investment Managers around the world. This group of assets trade more than $10 Billion dollars every trading day.
We also suggest you start with a minimum choice of 5 assets with $800 in each of them. Otherwise, if possible, available capital should be equally invested in 10 assets and profits from each re-invested in itself at the next BUY Signal.
On the first day, you should BUY only those “Bankers Top-10” assets that have a BUY signal and from that day forward, BUY or SELL at each new signal change that you receive from us.
These trades should always be placed at the “Opening Price” on the next trading day. Your Broker may call that a Market Order which can normally be placed any time before the Market opens for the next business day.
As you gain experience with our Algorithms, you can move further up the potential profit list of assets.
That’s It.Saturday May 5th 2018
CHANGES for the BETTER.
Always looking for a better and simpler presentation, we added the Total Top-10 selection to the bottom of the 5 basic sector groups, putting everything on our new Chart number 4A.
Also, Chart 1X has been simplified by eliminating the gain over the local Index.
We now simply look at the Booster profits over the Buy and Hold strategy for each stock and group and rank their current results.
I do want to caution you that some of these leveraged ETFs can be stressful.
On the other hand, the Banker Top-10 are also Exchange Traded Products, but at the opposite end of the spectrum.
Having spent so much time with these Algorithms for 7 years now, I think our decision to leave the DOW in with the S&P 500 and then to create this Banker Top-10 Booster has looked good to me from the start.
It combines the knowledge of these top-level Investment Managers with their need to compete. Our Boosters offer a unique new ability to stay out of down moves and sharp reversals. They combine their skills, creating huge volumes with every known fundamental analysis method to stay at the top. They then look for an edge to make that extra percentage that can set them apart.
Our Algorithms can be that edge. Their potential gain based on back testing is currently 242% or 142% profit from Chart 1X with an actual annual profit since March 5, 2018 of 25%. This profit from a Market with an S&P 500 that has moved down -0.7% during the same period.
These are dazzling results for an industry that struggles to get 8% to 12% longer term annual profits for their clients. Not so dazzling when compared with the Nasdaq annual profit of 136% for this same period but so much less risk for moderate to conservative investors.
What I like to see is the strait line graph of this Banker Top-10 Booster which could be a strong indicator of future performance.Thursday May 3rd 2018
IMPORTANT INDEX REFERENCES.
London stocks according to the FTSE Index at Plus +6.1% are doing far better than our S&P 500 Index at Minus -1.9% since March 5, 2018.
All our published Sectors were started on March 5, just 59 days ago and you would expect USA stocks to be doing far worse than their UK cousins, but not so.
The Nasdaq selections are performing at an annual gain of 139% which is over 4 times that of our S&P 500 selections at 32% which itself is a great result. This is during this past 2-month period when markets here have gone down.
We have reported on the high tax that investors pay when trading stocks in London and one of the surprising aspects is the Electronic 0.5% Stamp Duty Reserve Tax payable on purchase of shares. When added to Brokerage fees, this puts a damper on any trading accounts.
At Tradier Online Brokerage where we keep accounts, we pay $3.49 plus a few cents tax on each trade and then I assume we all worry about income taxes after that.
Our new Chart 1X is a recent addition to make it easier to select which stocks or ETFs might be preferred investments. This is where you see the above sector performances.
Conservative investors will see and should consider the new Bank Top-10 selections from the Investment Bank world. This selection is showing a potential improvement on a Buy and Hold strategy to be more than 200%.
Current performance since March 5 for the past 59 days is 5.0% or an Annual Return of 18% and I need to state once again that we are in a negative market since that date.Wednesday May 2nd 2018
INVESTING and SPECULATION.
Recent interest by Followers spurred our change to add strong investment opportunities to our Top-10 lists.
Although the DOW stocks are also listed in the S&P 500, they did represent a very popular group of assets even though only Boeing currently survives in the S&P 500 selection.
However, the improvement of replacing the DOW by the Banker Top-10 offers Conservative Followers more and great longer-term opportunities in well-chosen assets by experts in the field. This Banker list trades over $10 Billion daily.
As many of you know, the ETFs that work so well with our Algorithms over the longer term, do fall into a more speculative category and our goal here is to offer something at the conservative end of the spectrum.
For about twelve years, I have had the opportunity of working with several of the major money management Banks through my relationship with an ESOP or Employee Stock Ownership Plan. This is precisely where this Banker Top-10 idea comes from and it is surprising how many of these Money Managers are selecting the same assets in their portfolios.
My $10 Billion per day value comes just from the major USA listed stock market trades each day but our selections are made from major investment managers around the world.
This is a good time to repeat the Rule of Seventy Twos which I learned many years ago. If you divide 72 by your annual interest rate, the result is how many YEARS it will take to double your money.
Conversely, if you divide 72 by the number of years to double your money, the result is the annual INTEREST RATE that you need to accomplish your goal.
Of course, you young folks can keep doubling up this number to become extremely rich by the time you retire.Tuesday May 1st 2018
BIG CHANGES TONIGHT.
I think everything was updated by tonight, but a few stock charts may take until tomorrow.
One correction to make is my comment yesterday that the new Bankers Top-10 would trade less than other groups and I should have said more. They will average 4.5 trades per stock versus the average of 3.2 trades per month.
The graph of trades of the Banker Top-10 since March 5, 2018 does appear to be a smoother rise and that may well be associated with the huge volumes of those investment manager favorites.
Our Subscription Service begins today although all Subscribers will receive our FREE 30-days before billing at this time.
Today is also the day that we make any changes to the Top-10 selections in each group for the current month, but few were necessary, and we expect changes to be approximately 10% or an average of one change per group in future.
Followers will sell any stock that they own if it drops off their portfolio and replace it with another preferred asset. These changes should be made at the Market Open on the next trading day.Monday Apr 30th 2018
BANKER Top-10 REPLACES DOW.
The Banker Top-10 replaces the DOW Top-10 tomorrow. As indicated, the DOW are now included in the S&P 500 Top-10. Final selections for each group will appear tomorrow for the month of May.
There were a couple of changes during April, but our goal is to leave each selection at least for the entire month.
Even though our selections are made based on the statistics alone, there are situations such as price spikes for takeovers that have caused glitches in the groups.
The new Banker Top-10 is designed for those Followers who tend to stay with Asset Manager choices and we expect that group to stay more consistent.
Our Algorithms are working well with the Banker group with above 116% improvements on average for all ten.
Because of the extreme high volumes in this selection, the charts will show a more common ability for them to stay with trends and eliminate downtrends. With about 20 round turn trades each year, the recent activity shows about an 18% or 65-day average cash position for each of the 10 assets.Saturday Apr 28th 2018
CHANGES and IMPROVEMENTS.
Remember me saying there is always a better way? Well here it is . . . .
Although I began these Algorithms by testing the DOW 30 Industrials, it has become evident that they no longer serve our current goals.
As the DOW 30 Industrial stocks are also in the S&P 500, they are already included as part of the S&P Top-10 selection and are a part of our monthly sort. We think we can offer a better service and variety.
Their replacement will be a group of the world-wide Top-10 favorites from the largest and best money managers. So, if you want to do better than your favorite Money Manager you should check these out.
One of our sources from these Money Managers is JP Morgan Asset Management and they currently manage more than 1.64 Trillion Dollars and have offices in more than 30 countries.
According to Paul Merriman and Richard Buck in a Market Watch article, the past 80 years have produced average returns of 9.7% to 12.7%, depending on your choice of Small-Cap to Large-Cap stocks.
Liz Davidson reported in Forbes Magazine that 11% return is difficult to maintain over a long period. It all depends on timing, fees, trading costs and of course, Uncle Sam will want as much as 35% of your profits.
That is where our Managers Top-10 Booster Algorithms can make the difference. These are 10 of the most widely used assets in the professional management of large and institutional portfolios and they appear in many of these portfolios for long periods of time.
Daily turnover is about $10,000,000,000 each day.
Our Algorithms average about 20 round turns each year for each of the 10 assets and our 1-year potential return currently stands at about 26% or better than double their current return.
We will include this new Top-10 group from major Asset Managers in the next few days.Thursday Apr 26th 2018
ADDED Columns to 4T Chart.
We added 2 additional columns to the 4T Chart at the bottom of the Total Top-10 Booster Page.
This puts more data in one place for Followers and the first addition is the potential Days in Cash for each individual stock.
The second Daily % Gain represents the potential gain each day that the stock is owned.
These are calculated from the Algorithm projections and do not come from any additional data or input.
All input to the various charts is derived from statistical evidence even though it may be from different time periods. It is combined to find the best day to buy and to sell.
We determine that based on the evidence that we analyze over the past approximately 6 to 18 months, that best day is tomorrow at the Market open. We then calculate and show the evidence with precise results obtained over the past approximate year.
Years of testing shows us that we can effectively use that evidence today and into the future, but we recalculate everything again after Markets close every day. It is not surprising that a few changes do occur since yesterday but relatively few and that is why our lists of Top-10 will only be changed every month.
In the past, we have made changes during the month, but only special situations will cause us to do that. If it happens, we advise to sell when a stock is removed from the selection and the replacement stock or some other stock in the group be selected.Wednesday Apr 25th 2018
WHY BUY or SELL on the FIRST DAY.
Yesterday I referred to some comments about the new T+2day Banking Rule that replaced the T+3 Rule last September.
Unusual volatility and higher turnover of stocks can still run into this rule.
Today I want to emphasize some facts about our Algorithms that may help your choice of when to buy and which assets to buy when a signal is given.
Our Algorithms are designed around the best day to buy or sell assets. Historically, the day they change their signal, produces the highest result.
Also, these signals have produced profits at about 65% of the time on that first day and all other days are less.
This is the main reason I mentioned yesterday that if you need to buy 3 stocks and you only have available cash to buy 2, I personally would buy all 3 of them in smaller quantities. This is solely based on that 65% number.
If you want to further refine this decision, you could look at the number of potential trades listed for each stock to judge the average length of ownership. Longer ownership could indicate a steadier rise rather than a more volatile rise. You could also deduct the Days in Cash to try to be more mathematically correct.
This is not a precise science but a stock showing fewer buys and sells is likely to be moving up on a more regular basis than a stock which relies on many trades to achieve a similar annual return.
It always helps to look at a chart of the stock to determine whether the recent gains are by a steady upward performance rather than a sudden spike that may indicate some actual or rumored activity such as a takeover or positive news item.
Finally, we changed our format to listing stocks of each Top-10 sector to alphabetical rather than the performance of each individual asset.
After receiving comments about this, we have added a new Chart 4T at the bottom of the -Total Top-10 Booster- page showing all sectors in order of potential results after using our Algorithms. The background colors identify the sector that they come from.Tuesday Apr 24th 2018
T+2 RULE & OBSERVATIONS.
This volatility in our Markets may well have you worrying about the T+2 Banking rules when you quickly buy and sell stocks and find a shortage of cash in your account.
We were discussing this today and thought it probably affects a few Followers as well.
Basically, if you don’t have excess cash in your account and if you sell a stock today, you can use the proceeds to buy another stock. However, the money from the sale today is not settled cash for 2 more business days.
That means you cannot sell the new stock that you bought today for the next 2 business days because you did not use settled cash to buy it.
Put another way, the cash from the sale is not in your account for 2 more days because it must go through the Federal Banking System before you can receive the credit for it.
If you were to try to sell this new stock within those 2 days, you would be selling something that you did not theoretically own yet. It can get a little confusing at times and usually when you want to sell something quickly.
The problem is leaving extra cash in your account for the few times this happens is not helping you to maximize your annual gains as it reduces your percentage annual gains.
Along these same lines of discussion, if you need to buy 3 stocks and you only have available cash to buy 2, I personally would buy all 3 of them in smaller quantities.Monday Apr 23rd 2018
LONDON UP AGAIN.
The London FTSE 100 is making much better progress on the upside than the US Markets.
Now up over 8% since March 5, this equals the return of our S&P 500 Top-10 but less than half of the NASDAQ Top-10 which currently stand at 18.4%.
The Total Top-10 Booster is slightly ahead of the S&P 500 at 8.4%. All these gains are happening while the S&P 500 Index is still in negative territory for the same time period. With world leaders heading to the White House this week perhaps we will see some gains.Sunday Apr 22nd 2018
CHART 1C is WORTH LOOKING AT.
The new Chart 1C at the top of the Home Page and here is worth looking at for anyone comparing our performance.
I had this question this week and Chart 1C is a good item to watch every day.
Check the performance of our average profits compared to the performance of the S&P 500 Index over the same period.
As of Sunday, in the past 48 days, we are up 53.6% while the Index is down 3.1% and only the ETF Top-10 slowed us down.
This certainly gives you a warm and fuzzy feeling in this slow bear market, but the ETF selection needs some further explanation. We include 3x and 2x Leveraged Exchange Traded Products in the ETF group and they certainly are risky but offer superb performance in more normal times.
You just have to look at their Group Potential of 227% Annual Gain after our Algorithms to appreciate the relatively small negative return today.
At the end of April, we hope to publish a complete set of charts for all our selections and you will then see how their individual performances behaved in periods of negative movement.
I also commented that our Algorithms have been back-tested to 1990 which was the start of the VIX Volatility Index. This period covers the Financial Crisis of 2008 onwards.
Finally, I just must comment on the statistical nature of our selections. By themselves, they represent the Top-10 selection in each group that we offer. In turn, the selection is made from a basic number of 30 stocks in each group. This came about because the first group we tested was the 30 DOW Industrial Index.
We kept up the statistical selection of 30 stocks in all groups and have then selected the 10 that best fit our Algorithms and screens.
It is highly unlikely and statistically unreasonable, that our methods have produced 5 groups of 10 stocks that are below average, and I think the data that we publish ahead of the trades each day is convincing.
Free access to all trades continues until the end of April, and a further 30 days of free membership after May 1, 2018 applies to anyone who signs up at any time.Thursday Apr 19th 2018
No Blog Tonight.Wednesday Apr 18th 2018
HOW WE MANAGE OUR ACCOUNTS.
Newcomers to trading a managed account may benefit from these tips that we use on our own accounts.
First, we establish our total commitment to invest in a Roebuck Systems group of stocks. We will use an example of $10,000 and 10 stocks, so that we invest $1,000 in each stock.
Assume we have 8 buys on the first day, then we buy $1,000 worth of each of the 8 stocks at Market Price on the next trading day open. We use the closing price of each stock to decide how many to buy.
We also round out the number of shares we buy to the closest number above or below the $1,000 unless we are at our maximum of 10 stocks.
In this case for the tenth stock, we use 98% of remaining cash available in our account because the value of the share can change overnight and this gives us a 2% buffer in case the price goes up before the next day open.
We hit the Trade Button to place these orders and wait until the next weekday evening or Sunday evening when we receive the next Buy and Sell signals.
Different Stock Brokers deal with placing orders in different ways and Tradier has a large Green button to place your orders. However, if you are simply selling a stock that you already own, you can click on the Button to the right-hand side of the - Stock Positions - which says – Close Position.
So now, we place the sell orders. It is possible that one or more of the stocks you must sell are those that you bought today so do not be surprised by that.
Now we must consider the T+2 Banking Rule which tells us we must wait 2 business days before the money from stock sales is available to buy more stocks. This is due to Banks having to move money through the Federal Banking System.
Tradier Brokerage handles this rule for us when we click on – More Balances – and it tells us how much - Settled Cash - is available. Assuming we have sufficient cash available, we next look for any Buy Orders that must be placed.It's easy!
- Signals arrive each evening and should be taken on the NEXT TRADING DAY OPEN.
signal should always be taken the FIRST day it appears but may be taken anytime.
signal should always be taken the FIRST day it appears but may be taken anytime.Tuesday Apr 17th 2018
Advertising has Started.
Now that we have the Algorithms tuned and operational, we have started a more aggressive advertising schedule.
We plan to remove signals from the various charts on May 1 and continue sending signal details to our Subscribers after that date.
Many Followers are still with us from our volatility days and I know these new Top-10 groups will continue the quality of signals that we have previously published. Please keep the questions and suggestions coming as we always learn from them.
Subscribers should sign up a day or two before May 1, when subscriptions will begin in order to get your details onto the Email and/or Text lists.
A question came in concerning how the various Top-10 lists are chosen.
Using the S&P 500 as an example, we run lists of all 500 stocks and look at their details and performances over two years of history in as many as four different time periods and we then make our first selections.
This results in a short list of thirty stocks which are then run through final Algorithms to ascertain the Top-10 for the S&P 500 group.
This is repeated every month to add or eliminate any changes that occur and that is when you may see a slightly different selection at the start of each month. A change can occur on any day of the month, but this is usually on the My Top-10 Chart or the newer Total Top-10 Chart that includes all Selections including London FTSE 100 stocks. This is when you would immediately SELL a stock on the next trading day OPEN and replace it with another choice.
At this same time, you can choose to add the new replacement stock or a stock from higher up one of the groups. You could also choose a stock with a new BUY signal. This obviously depends on your own choices and portfolio decisions.
At Roebuck Systems, we are buying and replacing every stock in each Top-10 group without making individual decisions that various Subscribers might choose.
You may decide to invest in the top 5 each month or some more traditional way of making your decision. This could most likely and hopefully produce better results than our published Top-10 portfolios. Many of you are choosing a selection from more than one group or from all the groups according to personal preference.
Our goal is to find a small selection of 10 stocks out of each group and with the help of our Algorithms, enhance the performance as much as we are able. By checking and sometimes changing our choices twelve times each year, we fully expect that the portfolios will be different from year to year so that we stay with current performers.
We are excited at the results being achieved with the past 2 years of our selections. We find that history beyond 2 years has little performance or predictive value to our methods of research even though we have done back-testing to 1990.Monday Apr 16th 2018
DOW, S&P, Nasdaq, ETF & FTSE.
Finished with the updates after correcting a couple of errors this morning. You can now see a wide range of currently trading Top-10 selections from the above assets including London FTSE stocks.
As it turns out, the Nasdaq Top-10 has performed very well for us in this mostly down Market since March 5.
I certainly hope that this range of 50 stocks gives you the broad range and diversification that you seek for adding to or creating a great portfolio.
In every case, the Top-10 is continuously selected from the highest performing stocks in their group looking backwards up to a maximum of one year. If changes occur, they will be made at the start of each month.
In our accounts we will sell any asset as soon as it drops off the list of 10 and replace it with another stock from higher up the lists. In this way, we will actively maintain a maximum of 10 stocks in each portfolio for all 5 groups.Friday Apr 13th 2018
Preparations for NASDAQ and FTSE.
We have completed our preparations for adding the NASDAQ and London FTSE stocks to our Top-10 Booster selections.
Our Friday texts and emails are now distributed on Sunday evenings ready for Monday trading. However, as we progress over the weekend, you may see additions to the website.
Those Followers who trade in the London Markets will know that prices are quoted in Pennies or Cents in the UK and we will follow that practice, even though USA traders are used to Dollars.
Just remember that 2,000.00 pennies or cents looks very expensive, but it is really about $29.00 in US money.
Another quirk to note when looking at the NASDAQ Boosters are the high gains both before and after trading with our Algorithms and this also applies to any asset that has a high normal annual rate of return.
An asset that is returning 100% or 200% annual return or more is likely to be improved less by our Algorithms. It may only be improved by a 40% or 60 % increase. It will most likely still be a better overall investment when you compare your potential annual returns but the stock itself is contributing a larger percentage of the gain.
It comes down to that old problem of looking for low priced stocks and deciding they have further to go whereas an expensive stock may still be the better investment.Thursday Apr 12th 2018
NASDAQ and LONDON Top-10.
We continue with this volatile Market and today was UP. I have mentioned in the past how placing all orders for the next day Open can work against us.
Not always so! When the Market points down and our signal indicates a SELL, quite often, with this Up-Down volatility, when we place that order tomorrow, the Market reverses at the open and we SELL at a higher open.
The opposite also occurs when the signal tells us to make a Buy for tomorrow, and we end up with a great lower Buy.
I have often mentioned the old calculation that we lose about 15% per year by ordering tomorrow as opposed to watching the Markets all day long.
That is in fact an old calculation and goes back over 2 years when we were concentrating on trading volatility using the now defunct XIV as well as VXX and UVXY.
The exact percentage lost importance when it became obvious that we could easily beat my first goal of a 30% annual return and quickly moved beyond 60% and subsequently now, well over 100%.
The heading today refers to a recent question I received about the NASDAQ stocks and why did we not include them. I was deeply involved at the time in working towards the London Markets and indicated it would come later.
What changed was this 0.5% Tax question for traders in the UK on top of generally higher brokerage fees. I am no longer confident that many Followers would be trading them as this fee is significant. However, having almost completed that work, my intention is to add a FTSE-100 Top-10 and then add a NASDAQ Top-10 at the same time.
Unfortunately, due to the larger quantities of NASDAQ stocks, the selection will be from the large and the midcap stocks and will not include those with smaller capitalization.Wednesday Apr 11th 2018
S&P 500 Top-10 Stays Ahead.
The S&P selection is staying in first place these days and probably will continue there until we see a few more days string together on the upside.
Very little help from the Indexes today but there is evidence of individual stocks making their own headway and not being distracted by the news that we discuss all the time.
Good stocks will always do well and beat the news cycle in the long run. Our Algorithms for the S&P 500 confirm this and are offering much better than average returns.Tuesday Apr 10th 2018
A Good Day at the Races.
The DOW came racing back today and we quickly moved into a positive result, as did all the Algorithms.
Today was a good demonstration of how fast this can happen, and we do not have to reach previous highs in the Indexes to demonstrate great returns for our Followers.
I had a good set of questions today and one of them related to the London Markets. The factor that moved that idea a little lower on our schedule is the 0.5% tax on trades. It surely takes a slice out of profits for London accounts.
I have not figured out the pain that 0.5% would put on an average account but it seems like enough to open an account elsewhere if possible. I believe that would only apply to a sale of stock and not the purchase, but it still adds up on top of brokerage fees.
Perhaps somebody from the UK could send us a more complete picture of these affects. We are fortunate in the USA to have very low brokerage fees and small taxes directly on trades and perhaps investing with a retirement account would limit these costs.Monday Apr 9th 2018
High Daily Volatility Favors S&P 500.
This elongated period of daily surprises does not fit with leveraged assets or small databases, but it does fit the S&P 500 with a wide range of assets.
ETFs suffer initially by the delayed signals to trade on the opening of the next day. Secondly, their high Leverage works against high daily volatility unless the signals are in real time.
The DOW only has 30 possibilities and lacks the benefit of the S&P 500.
We have back-tested a full S&P 500 Top-30 and offer it here for you to confirm.
500 choices give us the benefit of a selection that includes stocks that have good current performance immaterial of political periods of high daily changes in direction. How many times have you heard that the Trend is your Friend.
Yes, our timing was not the best to start a new service and yet the performance of Mathematical Algorithms is measured by the difference between our trade signals and the INDEX that represents them, so let me demonstrate a good way to see that.
I assume that our signals and the S&P 500 Index started on March 5, 2018 with zero difference. The Index opened on that date at 2,681.06 and closed on Friday April 6 at 2,604.47 for a loss of 76.59 for the period. That is a 2.9% loss.
Our S&P 500 Top-10 closed on Friday at a 2.7% gain giving us an increased performance of 2.9% plus 2.7% or a total of 5.6% improvement over the Index in a down Market in 1 month. That is the equivalent of 67% annual return.
So, what is a reasonable conclusion?
The entire list of 500 stocks on average without any choice have lost 2.9% in the last month but we don’t invest in average stocks. We first select statistically, from the better performing stocks and then statistically again, signal what they will do tomorrow with about a 60% to 65% accuracy.
ETFs will do better in the long run because they have 2x and 3x leverage and Markets have been generally pointing up for several 100 years but that same leverage is painful on the way down. It could change tomorrow, and we will eventually catch on to that fact.
For the different reason of lack of choice, the DOW 30 stocks are underperforming the S&P 500.
So, we are back to the Trend is your Friend. We ran the S&P 500 Top-30 over the weekend to give support to these findings and it closed on Friday with a gain of 4.6%. That is a 7.5% improvement over the Index in one month or a 90% annual return in a down market.Friday Apr 6th 2018
Trade Wars and Markets.
European Markets lost about 0.3% and Chinese Markets went up about 0.5%.
American Markets lost more than 2.3% showing that the general investing public here are not thrilled with trade wars today.
Hope is not a winning strategy, but we must live with hope for the present.
Our profitable S&P 500 Boosters ended yesterday 4.8% ahead of the Index and they ended today about 5.0% ahead of the Index so we moved in the right direction, but the Markets did not.
We invest in those things we can control and try to ignore those that we leave to others. Timing is a difficult problem and starting the current accounts on March 5 turns out not to be ideal.
However, 5.0% ahead of the Index in one month is a great place to be when the Index moved down 2.8%. As noted, the S&P 500 gives us a wide range of stocks to consider whereas the leveraged ETFs have given up ground.
Even the DOW 30 is not enough stocks to withstand this current spell of volatility and Index losses and leaves the S&P selection as the one outstanding area of investment. Since March 5, the S&P 500 Top-10 Booster is currently showing a 27% annual profit which itself is well below a normal projection.
The Booster Next Day Trades will in future be sent out to Subscribers and Free Trial Members on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday evenings.
This Sunday it will show 10 Sells, mostly in the Leveraged ETF selections, further indicating a good time to step back to the sidelines.Thursday Apr 5th 2018
Shear Volume Favors S&P 500.
500 of the most well-known Companies in the S&P Index have a large numerical advantage over the 30 DOW Industrials.
We get to select only ten from each group which gives us a much larger number to pick from. Not surprising then that the S&P 500 Top-10 are the best performers so far, simply due to the large number of available stocks.
ETFs are going to behave differently because of the high leverage that affects most of them. Their construction methods use large numbers of Options for each stock to obtain the leverage.
Balancing takes place after the close each day so that the next day opening price will move at 2x or 3x the movement of the underlying stock.
Options at set strike prices will move much faster than the stock price depending on how far away the option strike price is from the underlying stock price. Calculations are then made to represent the leverage needed for the ETF but those calculations only last for a short period of the next trading day.
It becomes extremely complicated to follow exactly because many options at different strike prices change values at different rates.
On top of the pure relationship change between strike prices and underlying stock prices, there are 2 more factors that will affect the leverage ratio as the day progresses.
The first of these is the Volatility of the underlying stock or on the overall Market, which can pump up prices or reduce prices significantly in just a few minutes or hours.
The second of these is the Time-Value of each individual option. The value of an option which is set to expire next week, will move much differently than the identical option that may have 3 or 6 more months of life before expiration.
The calculations and adjustments that must be made for each ETF every day, just to produce the advertised leverage, bogle the mind. Even if the underlying stock were to close at the exact same price as the open, a completely new set of options would be needed to produce that leverage for the next day due to the Volatility and Time-Values.
With all that said, leverage in either direction can be good or bad, but it introduces a level of risk that must be considered. This recent down move produced greater losses in this group just as it will produce greater gains when the market turns up again.
Finally, the My Top-10 Booster contains a few none-leveraged stocks from the S&P 500 Top-10 group and this will place a smoothing factor on losses and gains compared to the pure list of ETFsWednesday Apr 4th 2018
A Question on Duplicates.
All 30 DOW Industrial Index stocks are also in the S&P 500 stocks and duplicates will occasionally appear in our Top-10 selections.
An example of this was ADBE which moved up into the bottom of My Top-10 selection in April when we already owned it because it was already a buy in our S&P 500 Top-10 selection.
Confusing – yes, but some traditional as well as statistical based followers could read that as a positive for ADBE, whilst some followers might see it as needless duplication.
BA (Boeing) has been a duplicate for some time as a good performer but was also affected greatly by the sudden tariffs on Aluminum in early March. As stated yesterday, our selections are strictly based on the potential annual return after applying our Algorithms.
A stock that is performing well with a gradual increase in price such as Boeing, may not always be improved as much as a slowly rising stock but the final return of Boeing PLUS the Boost by our Algorithm can still be the best position to hold.
Our selections are based on the best overall performance which includes the stock price plus the added potential that our Algorithm improvements offer.
We see a lot of losing stocks turned into profitable stocks simply because we tend to remove down moves and stay in while they are moving up but not many of those appear in the Top-10 selections.
One of the great benefits of a small monthly change in our Top-10 selections each month is our ability to move with the times and with popular trends. Just one new addition each month can completely offer a different selection as a year goes by and that is what keeps our statistical choices in the best potential performance areas.
How many times have we all looked at lists of best growth or lowest Price-Earnings Ratio stocks, only to be disappointed by our own personal selection from that list.
Our purely statistical selections can find those stocks that have in fact already delivered some good performance and show a likelihood of following their path for a while longer. If they do not perform, they soon drop from the list and we move on to more fertile selections.
Our stocks from DOW and S&P are reported all day long in the Market Statistics given out by almost every financial news source and have been there for many years.
We add to that, a selection of the new ETFs that offer the more risk-oriented investor a place to invest. We then offer My Top-10 which is simply a compilation of the 10 best all round potential performers from other lists.
These last two groups will perform poorly in a down Market but offer much greater performance in up Markets simply due to their built in Leverage and longer-term risks. Whereas Corporate stocks most often have an Investor Page on their website, ETFs have a Prospectus Page detailing their management methods, construction and risk levels.Tuesday Apr 3rd 2018
A Conversation Worth Repeating.
Sometimes I am not seeing the obvious and questions are very helpful to me.
My Algorithms are the result of a purely statistical background based on many years of trying to invest in almost everything. I do not do traditional analysis, PE ratios or industry selection.
Everything is a numbers game for me.
However, you can apply your own ideas and select which stocks or ETFs to follow or you can be a statistical animal also.
For instance, we have a great selection of opportunities to choose from.
Whatever your method for selecting assets to follow, some knowledge of stocks that offer a better future is certainly a benefit to feeling good about which Algorithm might work for you.
On the other hand, 2 or 3 selections from each group could also be a good statistical way of rounding out a personal portfolio that is more to your liking.
The important piece of information for you to know is that we have used pure statistics to make our selections and we do not read the Wall Street Journal every day to influence these choices.Monday Apr 2nd 2018
New Booster Algorithms.
Welcome to our Booster Algorithms and to our daily service and free 30-day trial.
Not the best day to start although it is better to begin when Markets are down rather than at their highs.
You will receive our signals every evening with all the Buys and Sells on the three groups of Top-10 DOW, Top-10 S&P 500 and Top-10 ETF products together with My Top-10, which is made up from the 10 potential highest returns from all three groups.
The Top-10 S&P 500 is performing
well in the current Market and the leveraged ETFs are struggling below the S&P 500 Index. This is typical of these leveraged ETFs and should make up the difference as Markets become more related to performance as opposed to the daily news cycle.
Our number 2 charts detailing the real performance since March 5 will be found on the History page of our website and we always take all trades on all assets as indicated by the daily signals.
The 12 months back test for each asset selected can be found on the individual Top-10 page.
Finally, the number 1 chart has the current Top-10 selection from each group and is sorted by the potential return after applying the potential gains after applying our Algorithm.Sunday Apr 1st 2018
New April 2nd Trades at the Open.
Following a large number of Sells recently, it looks like we are reversing that position on Monday morning with a large number of 23 Buys and just 4 Sells.
Leveraged ETFs tend to be very volatile and they are a significant portion of the trades.
Our FREE 30-day trials start tomorrow evening and these signals will in future be received by our Email and Text Lists of Followers each evening.
Notice the color coding to more easily follow the 4 main groups of Top-10 selections.Saturday Mar 31st 2018
Revised Top-10 Selections for April.
As previously mentioned, we expect to review and change the selection used in each Top-10 group every month if appropriate to our Algorithms. You will see any changes today.
If a previously listed stock or ETF is no longer in the Top-10, we will Sell it and BUY the replacement if a buy signal is indicated.
Our Top-10 trading logs take all signals from all listed selections with no preferential choice and you may well have different results depending which of the selections you choose to trade.
You will also see some new numbers on our trade logs representing the Investment. First is the total amount Available for trading the 10 selections. In most cases we currently show $2,000 for each with a total of $20,000 for the group.
The next number is the Maximum Invested from the $20,000 total. This allows us to calculate the Profit from that Maximum Investment so that our Profit Percent can be related to the investments made to date.
You can also see the results on the graph along with the relative position of the Index that best describes the Markets.
Finally, My Top-10 Booster is a selection of the highest returns demonstrated by the other three Top-10 groups of Algorithms. In other words, it is the top 10 of the other 30 selections in the Top-10 DOW, S&P 500 and ETF groups.Thursday Mar 29th 2018
FINALIZED MANY DETAILS.
Bounced back today staying well above the Market Averages.
It probably is a good idea to mention our Broker again even though we have no financial relationship with them other than having a few trade accounts.
They are offering 60 days or $200 of free trading to any new accounts that use our code of ROEBUCK200.
I mention this because my brother in the UK reminded me of the tax that is levied on every trade which really punishes short term trading.
Tradier charges $3.49 per trade and is a very friendly website for followers of our Algorithms, especially as we make all trades at the next trading day opening price.
On their site it is classed as a Market Order that can be placed any time after the previous day close and the next day open.Wednesday Mar 28th 2018
I MADE AN ERROR.
These up and down again markets have problems of their own and we are dealing with them, but start-ups have their problems too.
In the D2, S2, E2 and M2 charts my formula that creates profit percent and the trading log each day had an error and we were regretfully reporting incorrect numbers. The real numbers are not so bad so that makes me feel a little better. They are now correct.
Tonight, since Mar 5th the DOW is down 2.5%, the S&P 500 is down 2.8% and our combined accounts are down 0.27%.
While we are cleaning up glitches and getting ready for the opening day next week, we had an email outage for the last couple of days due to a GoDaddy outage for some of our employees.
Our S&P Top-10 is leading the pack as of today and we are a little closer to offering a FTSE100 Top-10 for my London friends and relatives. I wonder if they will ever switch to Pounds instead of trading in Pennies and fractions of a Penny?
However, it does remind me of when my brother and I used to get a Sunday Penny after the war to get some Lemon Sherbets.
A lot of selling at the open tomorrow and many of you will remember that our best assessment is that we give up about 15% of profits because we place all orders at the opening of the next day. We calculated a few years ago that if we watched the market all day waiting for signals we could improve returns by approximately 15%. We next decided that by doing that, there are so many intraday false and maybe signals that we are better off not staring at a computer all day.Tuesday Mar 27th 2018
SERVICE STARTS APRIL 2.
Finally, we are ready to go with daily signals to all our Followers with free service for 30 days starting on the first trading day on April 2nd.
We very much appreciate all those who have followed our progress and especially pleased that our Booster Algorithms are working so well across most asset classes and types.
Now with 30 selected stocks and ETFs in 3 groups of Top-10 DOW, Top-10 S&P and Top-10 ETF categories, we believe this service is a winner.
We have also added a new feature we call My Top-10 Booster, which provides my selection of the top 10 Booster Algorithms. This may be just for those seeking exceptional results but most of the assets we follow trade at least 1,000,000 shares each day and represent many different industries.
To make it simple, each Booster shows a current Buy or Sell, and all trades should always be made on the FIRST
day the signal switches from Sell to Buy or Buy to Sell. All trades should then be placed at the next trading day opening price with your Broker.
We started trading all these Algorithms on Monday, March 5 th. and you will see that a few have not yet provided a Buy signal. We are staying with our selection which does not change much but will generally only be changed at month end. If a stock disappears from any selection, it should be sold and replaced with one that is higher up on your preferred list.
For new Followers or Subscribers, the Buy or Sell signals can be taken at any time but the first day of any change is always recommended.
Monday Mar 26th 2018
Ways to use these Algorithms.
My experience in choosing where to invest for the opportunity to increase wealth has spanned almost the entire list of opportunities. I need to first list a few for relevance.
Stocks, Warrants, Options, Bonds, Futures, Funds, Real Estate, Antiques and Stevengraphs make up my short list. Also, I have used Managers, Advisors, Brokers, Banks and Casinos. (I used to count cards).
What do I choose now? I am older, I have time, I am good at Math, I know Computers and I create Algorithms.
Previously, I was an Engineer, but I have made anywhere from a loss to about 8% annually from investing, so I decided to try to make 30% with Algorithms.
Today, after more than 6 years, I can nearly double the annual return of an average exchange traded stock and with choice, I can do better and that is what you must do now.
You must choose from an array of DOW stocks or S&P 500 stocks or a range of the relatively new Exchange Traded Funds.
I have already pre-selected my Top-10 in each group and you can carefully select your own portfolio. The selections you make are from groups that represent 60% or more of US Traded assets.
If you have $1,000 - $2,000 to invest, you might select 2 or 3 Symbols that appeal to you from news stories.
If you have $5,000 - $10,000 to invest,
You might select 3 to 5 Symbols that appeal to you.
If you have $15,000 to $30,000 to invest, you are probably in the range of 5 to 11 Symbols in order to spread your risk.
I was once advised that anything above 11 Symbols puts you into your own unique category.
The final point I must make refers to each preferred Risk/Reward personality. As I said, I used to count cards at Blackjack and made a good return in Casinos both here and overseas, but then some Engineer designed automatic shuffling machines, making me happy that I had a regular career. That puts my type at a high Risk/Reward and my selection has a Top-10 page all to itself.
Most people I know do not fit this group and might select a mixture from the DOW, the S&P 500 and the ETF selection. We provide the signals and you must choose which ones to take.Sunday Mar 25th 2018
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR!
Thinking that I alone had the Golden Egg, I was of course following the Top-10 of all the Algorithms in all the three groups of DOW, S&P 500 and ETF selections.
My math is ok, but maybe my stock selection needs a little work.
Algorithms are amazing things, as are Computers, but I have received another reminder from the old days called GIGO.
Garbage In – Garbage Out.
It turns out that during the last couple of weeks since we started on March 5th, the Dow 30 Index has lost -4.0% and the S&P 500 Index has lost -3.6%. We probably can assume that any Index of ETF selections would have lost more than that due to leverage.
So how have Roebuck Systems Algorithms performed.
DOW Top-10 went down -2.9%
S&P 500 Top-10 went up 4.3%
ETF Top-10 went down -0.2%
Malcolm Top-10 went up 3.4%
The S&P 500 has performed better than everything else at plus 4.3% in this market while the S&P Index went down -3.6%.
So, be careful what you wish for because my Top-10 list made 3.4% which was worse than the S&P 500 which made 4.3%.
This looks odd until you take a closer look and remember the leverage which is associated with most of the ETF products. They are geared to move lower or higher than the assets they proport to represent.
With that said, GIGO can be at rest until the next scare and I for one am pleased that for now, the average DOW and S&P 500 stocks went down -3.8% while the average DOW, S&P 500 and ETF Top-10 choices went up 1.2%.
In fact, if you look at chart M4, which is currently on a new page, you will see that none of the DOW stocks are represented in my Top-10 selection. Of course, there are only 30 stocks in the DOW Industrials, so no surprise is appropriate.
Also, let me share a little secret. Down below, you will see Chart A1 which for now, shows the current date and the Booster Next Day Trades which are not currently official.Wednesday Mar 21st 2018
YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED . . .
We are progressing quickly and will shortly announce the beginning of our complete program for distributing these DOW, S&P and ETF signals.
All previous Followers and new Sign-Ups will be receiving those details first and I have received many favorable comments so far. I hope you will find the Algorithms and their signals to be helpful and can use them profitably.
As I noted previously, we are following all signals from all 3 groups of assets in our own Account Log. While we will run this as a free program for a while, we will continue to announce changes as they occur in the coming weeks.
One of the changes will be the selection of 30 Stocks or Exchange Traded Products that we follow. These changes will be minimized as much as possible but will change over time as particular assets lose usefulness or as better assets replace them. Larger than normal changes will appear this coming weekend.
Obviously, the DOW 30 Industrials will remain constant until Dow Jones needs to make changes due mainly to acquisitions.
With online trading becoming popular, Brokerage fees are not a major factor and as a rule, we will sell all assets that leave our lists of 30 and wait for signals to buy their replacements. We do not include Brokerage Fees in any of our calculations as there is still a wide range being offered. However, we do list our estimate of annual trades for each asset in the charts if you wish to take this into consideration.Tuesday Mar 20th 2018
NEW BUYS and SELLS TODAY.
This chart shows the new buy and sell signals to be placed at the open for the Wednesday Open tomorrow.
They are highlighted in red.
This is the latest chart with all positions being kept in alphabetical order rather than in date order.
As initially noted, we are following all 30 positions that appear in our three groups of DOW, S&P 500 and Exchange Traded Products but many Followers will have different total results depending on your choice for your own accounts.
The new graph shows actual results to date and the averages from each of the three groups can also be seen.
Note also that we show how many current positions we are holding as well as the average percentage of days that we expect to be in cash. This condition can improve your returns if you choose to invest all or a portion of these cash days into stocks.
Profit on invested cash is currently running at $3,583 with an annual return since March 5 th. 2018 of 197%.Sunday Mar 18th 2018
A FEW POINTS of NOTE.
We currently have three Top-10 asset groups selected from the DOW 30 Industrials, the S&P 500 Index and various Exchange Traded Products.
Generally, we have eliminated low volume assets which could present a problem with multiple traders. Higher volumes tend to produce smaller bid-ask spreads when trading.
Our selections are based on improved potential annual return AFTER APPLYING our Algorithms over a period and therefore may not increase a high performing asset as much as a lower performing asset. However, this is not a general rule as seen from the individual performance charts.
For example, we have cases within the groups that perform well, even though the underlying asset may have made a loss when held for the same period. One of the facts surrounding our Algorithms is that they stay out of almost all assets that enter a declining pattern and often make a profit just from the short periods when the asset turns positive.
For these reasons, it may be helpful to glance at the individual charts for all listed items to see their ability to handle high performing assets whilst also handling low performing assets. In a similar way, they also perform well when a sudden change in direction develops in their own market or in general market reversals.
It is true that our original Algorithms were developed to perform in the areas of volatility. The newest and most exciting aspect is their use within almost any market that we select and due to the interest proving to be almost 50% outside of the US Markets, we plan to extend to foreign markets within the next year or so.
As I was born in Coventry in the UK before ending up here in Chicago, it may well be London and the FTSE 100 calling me home.
As always, if you open a new account at Tradier.com and use the code ROEBUCK200, we will receive nothing, but you will get 60 days or $200 of free trading. We are not associated in any way with Tradier, but we do operate some of our accounts with them.Saturday Mar 17th 2018
HOW WE TRADE THESE ALGORITHMS.
We have been trading and publishing all 30 stocks and ETFs from March 5 th. in our Roebuck Systems Account Log when we first see a BUY signal and selling when we first see a SELL signal.
All trades are placed at the Opening price on the next Market Open Day.
Trades can be placed after receiving our daily evening email signals. Duplicate Phone Text Messages are also available to USA followers and Others who can receive them.
The full program will begin within the next 2 weeks and initially, all Followers will receive all signals. A Charter Member starting date will be announced later when subscription services will be available.
There are many ways to select how you wish to follow the signals depending on the amount of risk/return you choose. We are trading all 30 selections on a continuous basis to demonstrate the ongoing results.
We trade at Tradier.com Brokerage and you may receive 60 days of Free Trades up to $200 if you open an account with Tradier using the code ROEBUCK200. They charge $3.49 per trade.
Beginners could invest $1,000 in just 1 stock from 1 of the Top-10 groups to test the program. For myself, I would probably select 1 or 2 from each group or perhaps choose from the S&P 500 or ETF selections if I chose to increase the risk/reward.
Larger accounts might choose to buy the top 5 from each of the 3 groups. There are many ways to balance your investment style as you go forward and you can always look at our performance Account Log shown above and see at the bottom how each group is performing.
Another interesting number at the bottom of the Account Log tells you how many OPEN positions we have and what average percentage of our account is invested at any time.
You should also note that our log is invested in all 30 assets whereas higher results may be achieved if selections are made from the top of the lists.Friday Mar 16th 2018
END of WEEK UPDATE.
We have updated the Algorithms for the end-of-week positions and signals. These are as of the close on Friday, but it should be noted that some changes may occur over the weekend.
You can see that all Algorithms are based on the Top-10 selections of assets in each of the three categories that we currently offer. That is our selection of the Top-10 DOW stocks, the Top-10 S&P500 stocks and finally the Top-10 ETF and ETN products.
Our current selections may change slightly over the weekend while we input the latest information available to the Algorithms.
It is highly recommended that a last check of this BLOG and charts be made before any signals are assumed as final for the next market opening.
There is still work to be done on the website and you will still see changes before the end of the month.
Thursday Mar 15th 2018
Early Account Results.
We started trading the 30 Algorithms on March 5th and these are our current results. As usual, they are based on trading at the opening price following the signal. We currently have 21 positions.Wednesday Mar 14th 2018
SAMPLE of ALL 3 BOOSTERS..
Having now completed samples of all three DOW, S&P and ETF Booster Algorithms, here is a first look at the results.
Obviously, we are extremely pleased with the ability of these Algorithms to sort out their best results from a range of investment assets.
We started with the DOW 30 Industrials as a trial of a broad but well-defined group of stocks that are widely held in many portfolios and they offer the opportunity to fine tune and boost the annual returns that can be achieved by every investor.
Having seen those results, the natural move was to a much broader range as defined by the S&P 500 Index and we also select a Top-10 group to offer daily signals.
Finally, today you can see the last group of Exchange Traded ETF and ETN products that have been applied to our range of Algorithms with even greater potential.
This puts us much closer to offering daily support in these three ranges of assets and we are progressing towards a better-defined website as well as more description on how these can be traded.Sunday Mar 11th 2018
Current DOW and S&P500 TOP-10s.
Here’s a look at the current TOP-10 candidates and the increase in annual profitability after using our Booster Algorithms.
We started traded these results last week and as always, we will soon publish the results for all to see ahead of any trades.Saturday Mar 10th 2018
DOW and S&P500 BOOSTERS.
Making great progress in aligning our Booster Algorithms to the DOW and S&P Favorites.
The idea behind these charts is to select the DOW 30 Industrials and also 30 of the best performing S&P500 stocks and apply our unique Booster Algorithms to greatly improve profit performance.
We began trading the Top-10 of each group with very positive results. The concept has not changed much from previous Algorithms other than needed modifications but we have tweeked them to resist negative turns slightly.
We will soon demonstrate a sampling of the charts with very accute ability to accept positive moves but resist negative moves. I am posting today a group of charts for the DOW and for the S&P500 selections.
Early days but exciting progress.Tuesday Feb 27th 2018
TEST Booster UPDATE.
More testing and some very interesting results.
We tested some more high volume ETFs and ETNs across the board to see what kind of results we would obtain. Some of these were also suggested by followers.
What keeps surprising me is the fact that we turn negatives into positives - how great is that?
We also tested ZIV in our forthcoming Volatility group as we would like to get into VIX derivatives as there are quite a few to choose from.
We cannot do a daily run on any particular stocks but if you have suggestions for singles or industry groups while we are in the testing stage, they would be welcome. When we do get started again we will offer daily updates with appropriate signals.Monday Feb 26th 2018
DOW Booster UPDATE.
Here is a follow up of a typical end of day Dow Chart.
Still working on systems for daily updates but will post charts and data as we progress. I don’t advise using these signals currently as they will not be available every day but it does show how useful it will be within a few weeks.
You can see that INTC is shown as a buy for tomorrow.Sunday Feb 25th 2018
LOOK at the - DOW BOOSTER.
Here is the first look at the procedure for our Dow Booster program.
Monday morning gave you the new signal to buy Coca Cola Co. (KO), at the opening price if it was one of your preferred portfolio stocks.
It certainly benefits from applying our Algorithms. In the past 12 months it benefited from a 5.7% annual yield and moved up to a 15.8% yield. Total days owned was 225 out of 252 tradable days in the past year.
Would you choose to buy it tomorrow?
I cannot make that decision for you, but I have some mathematical facts that our proven Algorithms have consistently produced over 6 years and publicly demonstrated for more than 2 years.
Just look at Chart E, at the column marked - Action at Next Open. You will see all 30 Dow Industrial Index stocks, with their current Last Price and the annual gain before using our Algorithms.
Next, you will see the algorithm signals uniquely generated for each stock. They indicate either Own/Buy, In Cash, New Buy or New Sell. Following that column, you can see how many Buys and Sells occurred during the past 12 months. If it is still owned or is a New Buy, there will be one less Sell. If it is In Cash, our Algorithm is indicating no current ownership of that stock and the Cash may be reinvested in other Dow stocks.
There are usually 252 Trading Days each year and we have subtracted 3 additional days to allow for buying a different Dow stock and assumed that you would then be invested at the average annual return rate which is indicated at the bottom of the column headed – Gain After Algorithm. We assume this rate for all - In Cash - days for all 30 stocks after eliminating the 3 days for each of them.
To complete the explanation of this current Chart E, if you divide the average - Gain After Algorithm - by the average - Gain Before Algorithm, you will get 1.94 which represents the 94% Accumulated Algorithm Gains.
Finally, if you add the average – Gain After Algorithm - to the – In Cash Days Invested, and divide the total by – Gain Before Algorithm, you will get 2.60 which represents the 160% Total Accumulated Gains as a potential minimum annual return.
Why do I say – potential minimum?
For example, my personal plan would be to invest in less than the entire 30 Dow stocks and choose a changing portfolio of the best 5, 7 or 9 stocks chosen from the highest - Gain After Algorithm column. When our Algorithms kick one of them out of my portfolio, I would simply replace it with the next highest stock that moves into my portfolio.
I might complicate the selection by assigning a different percentage of ownership to each stock in my portfolio based on the performance indicated toward the top of our chart.
If I worked at Cisco or already owned some Apple stock, that might also affect my choices, but I would still Buy and Sell from our signals to improve the returns.
Finally, I probably would not Buy Coca Cola based on my own Algorithms. From the past, it made 26 trades in 225 days of the past 12 months and still only produced 15.8% of profit.Thursday Feb 22nd 2018
LATEST CHART for DOW INVESTMENTS..
This is an example of the work on the Dow 30 Industrials although the signals were given on different days this week and are not current.
We are using Cash to reinvest into an average stock minus the two days of cash T+2 banking rule for available funds.
As we continue to have progress I will post items of interest.
The point of posting this chart is to show that none of the 8 losing Dow stocks show a loss after using our new algorithms and the average gain is 112% more than your buy and hold strategy.
If you reinvest available cash in an average Dow stock at 33.4% the annual return increases to 181% more than a buy and hold strategy.Sunday Feb 18th 2018
NOTES ON TRADING THE DOW.
We have redirected our energy into finding an alternative to trading XIV and Volatility and we are finding some very good and less risky alternatives.
The main change has been recognizing that our Algorithms work on many stocks, indices and ETFs. Certainly, we must modify our Algorithms each time, but finding alternative investments has become more important to our efforts.
We created mathematical algorithms from years of development, but simply finding alternative investments is not so difficult and is less time consuming.
I have spent time this week looking for better computers but also looking at aspects of trading the general markets for leverage and less risk. You have seen our results for individually trading the 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks.
Now, I want to show you three available alternatives that can each run through our system with surprising results. The new chart E1 contains these results and we offer the following explanations and comments.
The top part of the chart summarizes the 30 individual stocks from the original chart E, showing the combined average results from trading all of them on an individual basis from a few days earlier 12-month period. Basically, traded with equal money on each, they produced an 18% profit and our 30 individual Algorithms produced a 35% profit.
That works out to 193% gain or a year-end profit of 93% after 219 trades with an average invested period of 162 days or 64% of the 251 trading day year.
The bottom part of the new chart shows individual results for Exchange Traded Products that each profess to represent the Dow Jones 30 Industrials.
The first DIA is a long time favorite and returned 22% versus the 18% of the original accumulated individual stocks. That seems a little odd but many of the construction and trading techniques could each partially explain it and that is not my interest at present.
The second DDM is a 2x leveraged ETF by Proshares set up to do twice the performance of the Dow Industrials. It did more than double with the past 12 months reporting a 48% return. Again, internals and trading may well explain those differences.
The third UDOW is a 3x leveraged ETF by Proshares set up to produce three times the performance of the Dow. It also did more than triple reporting a 78% return. Once again, we will not go into the reasons why this might be.
This chart E1 is to show what happened when we ran all 30 stocks as well as the 3 individual ETF’s through our modified Algorithms. Obviously, the straight DIA at a 22% did not benefit as much from our 24% result. One reason that I can see is the difference in the quantity and value of signals when fine tuning is reduced to 1 signal per day versus 30 individual signals.
Our results improved as we went up in leverage and unfortunately, this also means up in RISK. However, if we apply our Algorithms to each of the 30 Dow stocks individually, we get our best percentage improvement at 93%. There must be a lesson somewhere.
My Mother was smart, and she said more work makes Johnny into a much smarter boy. I hope she knew nothing about the S&P500 or I am in for a lot more work.Saturday Feb 17th 2018
UPDATED DOW RESULTS.
Chart E has been updated to use Friday close prices for all 30 stocks and a small error in the last 6 stocks corrected for trade quantities and days invested.Friday Feb 16th 2018
COMPLETE DOW RESULTS.
Finally completed results for the Dow Jones Industrial stocks and much of the information remains as previously reported. You will see a chart on the Blog now showing all Dow 30 stocks. So, what can we finally report?
First, if we were invested in the entire set of Algorithms, we would currently own 19 of the 30 and we would improve the past year of results by 93%.
Finally, we would have made 219 trades and be invested for an average of 160.4 days each or 64% of the time. Average cash would be 36% of invested capital.
One clever interpretation of this would be that if the cash were put to work in the average return of these Algorithms, then the return would be much higher.
We would ideally calculate that by the following formula: -
(36% divided by 64%) multiplied by 93%, giving us an additional 52% profit for the year. The total return for the year would then be 145% profit in THEORY.
Information is coming faster right now and there will be an additional post to the Blog on Monday. Thanks.Thursday Feb 15th 2018
REALLY GOOD RESULTS SO FAR.
Hope to increase the information that I can report as the results are now becoming more evident as we proceed.
You will see a chart on the Blog today that shows our plain vanilla Algorithms working on the first 16 stocks belonging to the Dow 30 Industrials. They are in alphabetic order with no specific choice.
The exciting part of this to me, are the substantial results across the board, which leads me to be confident that we have more universal appeal. We can in the future put various types or combinations together.
Note that if you invested in these first 16 Dow stocks exactly 1 year ago, with equal amounts of money, you would now be up by 17.6% after 16 Buys.
However, if you had run the stocks through our New Algorithms during the exact same period, you would currently own 10 of them and you would have more than doubled your profit. This after just 100 total trades.
Here is the good stuff!
Not only that, but your money would be invested much more efficiently because you would have it invested for less of the time, making the cash portion available for increased investments, either in our Algorithms or some other choice.
Simply put, if we say that stocks go up 60% of the time and down the other 40% of the time, and you can be out when they are going down and in when they are going up, you achieve much better results.
A further look at the first straight purchase of all 16 stocks means that you would have lost money on 3 of them with the worst being General Electric at minus -51.1% and the best being Boeing at a positive 102%.
Our Algorithms eliminated all 3 losses and changed General Electric to almost 4% profit with the best still being Boeing at 114% profit.
Obviously, there are a multitude of choices just surrounding the Dow, but we are looking at other possibilities as well as single stocks, ETNs and ETFs. There are just as many choices when considering types of World Markets and types of Industries, either individually or as melded groups.
Please stay tuned as I fully intend to finish all the Dow 30 Industrials and make some choices available as soon as possible. We are committed to this project, especially now that we see so many alternatives in an amazing array before us. Thanks again for your interest.Saturday Feb 10th 2018
THERE IS ALWAYS A BETTER WAY.
With seven years of focusing on the best way to improve my own investments, algorithms took second place to finding the VIX Volatility Index and XIV concept.
I must tell you that one week of failing results and having to think about the Credit Suisse deal, finally pointed me to successfully applying the Algorithms to tests elsewhere. And it worked!
In 1969, I used a Consultant to run a seminar on Functional Analysis, when I first heard the phrase – There is always a better way. I recognized it as part of my DNA and immediately adopted it.
Unfortunately, I do not do magic tricks, but I do have this DNA that does not quit, and I also still have over 6 years of Mathematical Algorithms and research.
I did some preliminary testing on a broad set of Exchange Traded Products and those results are shown in the small chart below.
The Top 10 includes Biotech, Semiconductors, China Stocks, Dow Stocks, Nasdaq Stocks, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, Oil Services and the S&P500 Stocks.
The Chart shows their Market returns for the past 12 months and finally, the Annual Return after processing them through the Algorithms.
My current thinking is an index or mixture that solves the issue of relying on a single issue such as XIV, which worked well for about 3 years before the recall. This is very early and will take more time to develop.
I will keep the Website and Blog going with the intention that negative and singular goals will be replaced by a balanced approach that will work, no matter the direction of the Markets or Economy.
Worth noting from the chart is that Gold and Silver and maybe Energy often become hedges against the Dow and S&P500. However, more importantly, Industries that lost money over the previous year were turned profitable after the Algorithms were applied.
I will send out occasional emails as significant changes occur and want to thank you for your interest in these Algorithms.
Tuesday Feb 6th 2018
A HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT.
This has been a huge disappointment to you and to all of us and for it to happen in Extended Hours Trading is no solace.
XIV opened today at 10.49 and in three steps went to 5.50 and traded up to 8.69 and down to 7.35 at the close.
Credit Suisse was quick to issue an Event Acceleration per their Prospectus and we appear to be subject to XIV going below 20% of the Prior Day Closing Value.
Here is the Credit Suisse announcement again --> Credit Suisse Announcement
My apologies cannot change this bleak situation. Positions may be liquidated before the cash payment per ETN which appears to be after Feb 20th, 2018.Tuesday Feb 6th 2018
ALERT - Roebuck Systems Update
We have received several questions asking how yesterday's events have impacted XIV trading. We want to share an update on how we understand what is happening.
Credit Suisse announced the following this morning: --> Credit Suisse Announcement
It appears that no new shares will be issued and trading will end on Feb 20th. Trading in XIV has not currently opened. We will continue to update you with any new information regarding XIV and do our best to provide clarity on anything else that arises.
Malcolm and the Roebuck Systems team.Monday Feb 5th 2018
I am advising all followers not to buy any XIV until we can ascertain whether or not Credit Suisse or VelocityShares intends invoking their 20% value rule. During Extended Hours Trading tonight, XIV went as low as $10.00 per ETN which may or may not affect their 20% rule. We will try to find an answer to this and publish our findings as soon as we can.